I was really disappointed that MOONRISE KINGDOM only got a screenwriting nom. I would've easily given it nods (maybe even wins) for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Supporting Actor (for Edward Norton.)
Was surprised that Affleck and Tarantino didn't get director nods, particularly Affleck. I don't really get the point of having 9-10 picture nominees and only sticking with 5 for directing.
I wasn't surprised, but it still sucks, that Matthew McConoughey didn't get a nomination for KILLER JOE.
As to who's going to win, I guess it depends on who the Academy wants to kiss-ass on more: Spielberg (LINCOLN, which to be fair was really good) or the Weinsteins (SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK). I haven't seen SLP, it may well be fantastic, but I gotta say, knowing that Bradley Ken-doll Cooper has more Oscar nominations than Alan Rickman, Willem Dafoe, Steve Buscemi & Michael Fassbender combined kind of makes me sick.